Introduction and Overview
This report focuses on PBF Energy Inc. (PBF), a major player in the Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing industry within the Energy sector. As of May 02, 2025, PBF trades at $17.24, reflecting its current short-term weakness relative to its moving averages. The company holds a market capitalization of approximately $1.99 B.
This detailed analytical report aims to predict stock prices along with technical examinations while providing future forecasting for 2025-2026. This report combines both historical price-related technical indicators and fundamental data examination for creating an extensive market performance forecast.
Brief Overview
PBF Energy Inc., through its subsidiaries, engages in refining and supplying petroleum products. The company operates through two segments, Refining and Logistics. It produces gasoline, ultra-low-sulfur diesel, heating oil, diesel fuel, jet fuel, lubricants, petrochemicals, and asphalt, as well as u…
Key Metrics and Forecast Summary
The 1-Year forecast of $26.91 (+56.1%) suggests modest potential upside. The 67.3% annualized volatility indicates high risk (price fluctuation). Price is below both SMA50 ($17.52) and SMA200 ($25.18), signaling bearish trends.
Price Forecast Chart
Recent actual average prices vs. forecasted price range (Low, Average, High).
Detailed Forecast Table
The table below outlines the forecasted price range (Minimum, Average, Maximum) for PBF stock on a month basis. ‘Potential ROI’ (Return on Investment) is calculated by comparing the forecasted ‘Average’ price against the current stock price ($17.24). ‘Action Signal’ provides a simplified interpretation based on this ROI: ‘Buy’ if ROI > +2%, ‘Short’ if ROI < -2%, and 'Hold' otherwise. The signals originate from the forecast model prediction data exclusively.
Over the forecast period, the price is projected to fluctuate between approximately $14.28 and $39.22.
The widening forecast range from $16.95 – $16.95 initially to $23.91 – $34.96 towards the end of the forecast period reflects increasing uncertainty or expected volatility over time.
| Month | Min. Price | Avg. Price | Max. Price | Potential ROI | Action Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-05 | $16.95 | $16.95 | $16.95 | ▼ -1.7% | Hold |
| 2025-06 | $20.89 | $28.96 | $39.22 | ▲ 68.0% | Buy |
| 2025-07 | $17.98 | $26.29 | $35.77 | ▲ 52.5% | Buy |
| 2025-08 | $18.56 | $25.51 | $35.07 | ▲ 48.0% | Buy |
| 2025-09 | $18.33 | $25.63 | $33.20 | ▲ 48.7% | Buy |
| 2025-10 | $18.47 | $27.00 | $34.45 | ▲ 56.6% | Buy |
| 2025-11 | $19.43 | $27.24 | $35.99 | ▲ 58.0% | Buy |
| 2025-12 | $17.92 | $25.68 | $32.57 | ▲ 49.0% | Buy |
| 2026-01 | $14.28 | $23.80 | $31.87 | ▲ 38.1% | Buy |
| 2026-02 | $15.87 | $25.43 | $33.81 | ▲ 47.5% | Buy |
| 2026-03 | $16.53 | $25.86 | $33.85 | ▲ 50.0% | Buy |
| 2026-04 | $18.49 | $26.91 | $33.79 | ▲ 56.1% | Buy |
| 2026-05 | $23.91 | $29.97 | $34.96 | ▲ 73.8% | Buy |
Company Profile
Business Summary
PBF Energy Inc., through its subsidiaries, engages in refining and supplying petroleum products. The company operates through two segments, Refining and Logistics. It produces gasoline, ultra-low-sulfur diesel, heating oil, diesel fuel, jet fuel, lubricants, petrochemicals, and asphalt, as well as unbranded transportation fuels, petrochemical feedstocks, blending components, and other petroleum products. The company sells its products in Northeast, Midwest, Gulf Coast, and West Coast of the United States, as well as in other regions of the United States, Canada, Mexico, and internationally. It is also involved in the provision of various rail, truck, and marine terminaling services, as well as pipeline transportation and storage services. The company was founded in 2008 and is based in Parsippany, New Jersey.
Total Valuation
Total valuation metrics provide a broader view of the company’s worth, including debt and cash.
With an Enterprise Value of $3.77 B against its Trailing Twelve Months (TTM) revenue, PBF’s EV/Revenue ratio stands at 0.12x, which is currently below the estimated industry average (~2.5x), potentially suggesting undervaluation relative to revenue.
Important upcoming dates: Next Earnings around 2025-05-01, Last Ex-Dividend Date was 2025-02-27.
| Market Cap | $1.99 B |
| Enterprise Value (EV TTM) | $3.77 B |
| EV/Revenue (TTM) | 0.12x |
| EV/EBITDA (TTM) | -4.49x |
| Next Earnings Date | 2025-05-01 |
| Ex-Dividend Date | 2025-02-27 |
Valuation Metrics
Stock valuation metrics enable investors to determine the price value relationship between stock market worth and earnings along with sales, book value and anticipated growth potential.
Forward P/E of -30.25x Price/Book of 0.36x Mentoring these financial metrics to industry standards as well historical company values generates deeper understanding.
Note: P/FCF (Price to Free Cash Flow) of N/A is another key valuation indicator. EV/EBITDA is often used for comparing companies with different capital structures.
| Forward P/E | -30.25x |
| Price/Sales (TTM) | 0.06x |
| Price/Book (MRQ) | 0.36x |
| EV/Revenue (TTM) | 0.12x |
| EV/EBITDA (TTM) | -4.49x |
Financial Health
Companies need financial health indicators to determine their capability of handling short-term financial commitments (liquidity) and their ability to repay long-term debt (solvency) as well as their equity and asset return ratios.
- Debt/Equity ratio of 40.75x signals high leverage, indicating elevated financial risk.
- Liquidity assessment requires Current/Quick Ratio data.
- Operating Cash Flow (TTM) stands at $-633.80 M, demonstrating cash generated from core operations.
These metrics act as point-in-time measurements yet understanding long-term trends delivers better understanding. ROA (Return on Assets) does not appear frequently in these financial reports.
| Debt/Equity (MRQ) | 40.75x |
| Total Cash (MRQ) | $536.10 M |
| Total Debt (MRQ) | $2.31 B |
| Operating Cash Flow (TTM) | $-633.80 M |
Financial Efficiency
Financial efficiency ratios evaluate organizational asset management and working capital control (such as inventory and receivables) for generating revenue and profits.
- Specific financial efficiency metrics were not readily available.
ROIC stands as an important measurement of total capital efficiency but analysts need full financial statements to generate this metric. Monitoring should focus on equal groups in the same market sector.
| No specific data available for this section. |
Profitability and Growth
Profitability margins show how much profit is generated per dollar of sales at different stages (Gross, Operating, Net). Growth rates track the expansion of revenue and earnings over time.
- Recent revenue growth was -18.30% (Earnings growth N/A).
- Gross Margin (-0.78%) appears low, while Operating Margin (-6.99%) is low. Analyzing margin trends over time is important.
Business owners should measure margins by comparing them against industry competitors and past performance records. Stock value development depends heavily on sustainable growth.
| Profit Margin (TTM) | -3.31% |
| Operating Margin (TTM) | -6.99% |
| Gross Margin (TTM) | -0.78% |
| EBITDA Margin (TTM) | -2.71% |
| Revenue (TTM) | $31.54 B |
| Revenue Growth (YoY) | -18.30% |
| Gross Profit (TTM) | $-245.20 M |
| EBITDA (TTM) | $-853.80 M |
| Net Income (TTM) | $-1.04 B |
Dividends and Shareholder Returns
Stock dividends together with share repurchases constitute major methods that corporations use to redistribute wealth to their shareholders. Investors who focus on income require a thorough analysis of both yield ratios and dividend sustainability.
- Dividend Yield (Forward) is 660.00%.
- Payout Ratio of 15.37% indicates a low, suggesting significant capacity for future increases.
- This dividend profile may appeal most to primarily growth (low current yield likely) investors.
- Share buybacks (Yield: N/A) also contribute to total shareholder return.
Shareholders obtain a yield consisting of dividends and buybacks according to the equation Total Shareholder Yield = Dividend Yield + Buyback Yield. Raising dividends to full potential may temporarily restrict future dividend expansion possibilities. Check Ex-Dividend Date for eligibility.
| Dividend Rate (Fwd) | $1.10 |
| Dividend Yield (Fwd) | 660.00% |
| Trailing Dividend Rate | $1.05 |
| Trailing Dividend Yield | 6.30% |
| 5 Year Avg Dividend Yield | 5.2% |
| Payout Ratio | 15.37% |
| Ex-Dividend Date | 2025-02-27 |
Technical Analysis
Summary based on data up to 2025-05-02. Detailed charts follow.
- Trend: Bearish Trend (Price < SMA50 & SMA200). Current Price: $17.24.
- Momentum (RSI): 81.8 (Overbought), suggesting potential pullback risk.
- Momentum (MACD): Line (0.01) above Signal (-0.30) (Bullish Signal). Histogram is Positive (Strengthening Bullish).
- Volatility (BBands): Price within Bands, indicating normal volatility range.
- Support/Resistance (30d): ~$13.62 / ~$18.48.
Moving Average Values
Technical indicators analyze past price trends, not future guarantees.
Bollinger Bands Analysis
RSI Analysis
MACD Analysis
Historical Price & Volume
Historical closing price and volume. Range typically shows last 3 years.
Stock Price Statistics
The statistics helps you to understand the stock’s volatility along with market-related Beta value and performance range and trading liquidity.
- Beta is reported as 1.15x.
- Recent Volatility (30d Annualized) is 67.3%.
- The 52-Week Change of -67.88% reflects long-term price momentum.
Note: Beta > 1 indicates higher volatility than the market; Beta < 1 indicates lower. Average Volume shows typical daily trading activity.
| Beta | 1.15x |
| 52 Week Change | -67.88% |
| S&P500 52-Week Change | 9.29% |
| 52 Week High | $53.18 |
| 52 Week Low | $13.62 |
| 50-Day Moving Average | $18.80 |
| 200-Day Moving Average | $28.46 |
| Average Volume (10 day) | 2,943,330 |
| Average Volume (3 month) | 3,237,977 |
| Volatility (30d Ann.) | 67.3% |
Short Selling Information
Short selling data indicates the level of bearish bets against the stock.
- Short interest at 26.62% of float suggests very high bearish sentiment.
- This level indicates elevated short squeeze risk.
- The Short Ratio (Days To Cover) is 4.9x, meaning it would take about that many days of average volume to cover all short positions.
Note: High short interest can increase volatility. The Short Ratio helps gauge how quickly short positions could theoretically be covered. Data as of 2025-04-15.
| Shares Short | $18 M |
| Short Ratio (Days To Cover) | 4.9x |
| Short % of Float | 26.62% |
| Shares Short (Prior Month) | $15 M |
| Short Date | 2025-04-15 |
Risk Factors
Investing in PBF involves various risks. This section outlines potential factors identified through data analysis and general market considerations. It is not exhaustive.
- ⚠️ Price (17.24) is below the 50-Day SMA (17.52), indicating potential short-term weakness.
- ⚠️ Price (17.24) is below the 200-Day SMA (25.18), indicating potential long-term weakness.
- ⚠️ RSI (81.8) is high (>70), suggesting potential overbought conditions.
- ⚠️ High Debt-to-Equity ratio (40.75x) indicates significant financial leverage risk.
- ⚠️ Negative year-over-year revenue growth (-18.30%) poses a risk to future performance.
- ⚠️ General market fluctuations and economic conditions can impact stocks in the Energy sector.
Analyst Insights and Consensus
Wall Street analysts provide ratings and price targets based on their assessment of the company’s prospects.
- The consensus recommendation from 13 analysts is ● Hold.
- Analysts’ mean target price of $19.54 implies potential 13.3% change from the current price ($17.24), suggesting analyst neutral outlook.
Note: Analyst opinions are subjective and can change. Look at the range of estimates (High/Low Target) and any recent revisions for more context.
Recent News and Developments
Recent news and developments can significantly impact stock performance and investor sentiment.
Conclusion and Outlook
Short-Term Outlook
- ●Overall Technical Sentiment: Neutral.
- ▼Price below key SMAs (50, 200), indicating bearish short/long-term trends.
- ⚠️Overbought (RSI: 81.8), potential for pullback.
- ▲MACD indicator shows Bullish momentum signal.
- ●Price is currently within normal volatility range.
- ℹ️Key levels to watch: Support ~$13.62, Resistance ~$18.48.
Long-Term Outlook (1 Year)
- ▲Model forecasts ~+56.1% average change over 1 year to ≈$26.91.
- ●Valuation appears moderate (Fwd P/E: -30.25x). (Needs peer comparison).
- ●Fundamental health assessment incomplete.
- ●Recent growth trajectory is mixed or unclear.
- ●Analyst consensus: Hold.
- 💸Offers a dividend yield of 660.00%.
Overall Assessment:
Overall assessment requires careful consideration of all factors. Technicals currently show Neutral signals. Fundamentals appear Moderate. The forecast suggests Potential Upside. Consider risks before investing.
This is an analysis report and not investment advice. Review all data and consult a professional.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the PBF stock forecast for the next year?
The current 1-year average price forecast for PBF is approximately $26.91. This represents a potential change of +56.1% from the current price of $17.24. Keep in mind this is an estimate, and the actual price could fall within the forecast range (see table) or outside it due to market factors.
Will PBF stock go up or down?
The 1-year forecast (+56.1% potential change) suggests the stock might go up on average. However, short-term movements can differ significantly based on technical factors (Neutral) and market news. Refer to the detailed forecast table for projected monthly ranges.
Is PBF a good stock to buy now?
Current technical sentiment is Neutral (neutral leaning). The stock is currently ⚠️ overbought (RSI: 81.8). The forecast shows a +56.1% potential 1-year change. However, 6 potential risk factor(s) were identified (see Risk section). This is not investment advice. Evaluate risks, fundamentals (like valuation, debt), and your own investment strategy. Consider consulting a financial advisor.
How volatile is PBF stock?
The recent annualized volatility for PBF is calculated at ⚠️ 67.3%, indicating high price fluctuations compared to typical market averages. Check the ‘Stock Price Statistics’ section for Beta comparison if available.
Is PBF considered expensive based on P/E ratio?
The Trailing P/E ratio is ● N/A. This is considered N/A relative to typical benchmarks. Refer to the ‘Valuation Metrics’ section for Forward P/E and other ratios, ideally compared to industry peers for full context.
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