ALHC Stock Analysis and Forecast
Introduction
This report provides a detailed analysis of Alignment Healthcare, Inc. (ALHC), a $3.01 B company operating in the Healthcare Plans industry. The core question for investors is whether the current stock price represents a fair value and if the company is positioned for future growth.
Here’s What You Need to Know Right Now
The stock is sitting at $15.37 (as of May 2025), and it’s experiencing a short-term pullback within a larger uptrend, as it trades below its 50-day average while holding above the 200-day.
Analysts appear optimistic, with a 1-year price target of $18.22 (a potential +132.0% upside). However, there’s significant volatility here (48.7% annualized), suggesting the potential for wide price swings.
Alignment Healthcare, Inc.’s fundamental story is nuanced. On one hand, the company benefits from solid revenue growth (up 4750.00% YoY). On the other, it faces challenges with a high debt load (Debt/Equity: 302.31x).
What’s Inside This Analysis?
We’re not just throwing numbers at you—we’re breaking down ALHC’s stock from every angle so you can make an informed decision:
- ✅ Is now a good time to buy?
Technicals say “Neutral” (but RSI is neutral at 44.0).
Fundamentals say “be cautious” (driven by debt levels and growth metrics).
- ✅ Can its core operations drive future growth?
Future growth will likely depend on performance in its core Healthcare Plans operations and ability to manage competitive pressures.
- ✅ What are the biggest risks?
The company carries $329.50 M in debt, which could be a headwind in a high-interest-rate environment.
Competition is fierce from both established players and new entrants.
Most stock analyses either use hard-to-understand jargon or say something too simple like “just buy” and trust the outcome. This is not what’s happening. We’re here with clear information that benefits you, no matter if you invest for long-term results or try for fast profits.
All in all, is Alignment Healthcare, Inc. the right investment to make sure your money tells a story of success and satisfaction? Or are there underlying issues to be wary of? Stick around as we get to the details in the data.
Metrics Summary
Current Price$15.37
1-Month Forecast$22.09
1-Year Forecast$35.65 (+132.0%) ▲
Technical Sentiment▲ Bullish
Volatility (30d Ann.)48.7% 📉
Below SMA 50$16.49 ▼
Above SMA 200$14.60 ▲
Green Days (30d)12/30 (40%) ▼
The following data points provide a summary of ALHC’s current status. Currently priced at $15.37, ALHC has a model-based 1-year forecast around $35.65 (a +132.0% potential change). Technical indicators currently reflect a Bullish sentiment (Below SMA 50 / Above SMA 200). Recent volatility (48.7%) quantifies price fluctuations. We delve into more specific technical and fundamental analysis in the subsequent sections.
Detailed Forecast Table
Here’s the breakdown of the month forecast for ALHC ($15.22 to $43.83 overall range). The table shows projected price bands, potential ROI against the current price, and the resulting model signal per period.
Over the forecast horizon (2025-05 to 2026-05), ALHC’s price is projected by the model to fluctuate between approximately $15.22 and $43.83.
Forecast uncertainty appears steady, with the price range ($15.22 – $15.22 to $25.52 – $43.83) showing little change over the horizon.
Month (Period)
Min. Price
Avg. Price
Max. Price
Potential ROI vs Current ($15.37)
Model Signal
2025-05
$15.22
$15.22
$15.22
● -0.9%
Hold/Neutral
2025-06
$16.15
$19.06
$21.53
▲ 24.0%
Consider Buy
2025-07
$18.74
$22.09
$24.10
▲ 43.7%
Consider Buy
2025-08
$20.77
$23.22
$26.34
▲ 51.1%
Consider Buy
2025-09
$21.52
$24.67
$27.48
▲ 60.5%
Consider Buy
2025-10
$22.63
$26.12
$30.05
▲ 69.9%
Consider Buy
2025-11
$24.72
$30.38
$35.79
▲ 97.6%
Consider Buy
2025-12
$25.79
$31.80
$36.34
▲ 106.9%
Consider Buy
2026-01
$25.07
$30.97
$36.07
▲ 101.5%
Consider Buy
2026-02
$23.45
$30.19
$35.53
▲ 96.4%
Consider Buy
2026-03
$22.11
$30.65
$39.25
▲ 99.4%
Consider Buy
2026-04
$23.72
$33.34
$40.77
▲ 116.9%
Consider Buy
2026-05
$25.52
$35.65
$43.83
▲ 132.0%
Consider Buy
Remember that these forecasts are generated by models, carry inherent uncertainty, and can change with new data or market shifts. Future prices are not guaranteed.
Total Valuation
Total valuation metrics offer a broader perspective beyond market capitalization. Enterprise Value (EV) of N/A provides a more comprehensive measure of ALHC’s total worth than market cap alone, as it incorporates debt and cash. The EV/Revenue ratio (0.95x) compares this total value to sales, while EV/EBITDA (-84.39x) relates it to operating profitability before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization. These ratios help assess the company’s valuation relative to its sales and operating earnings. Key upcoming dates include the next earnings announcement (Est: 2025-05-01) and the ex-dividend date (N/A).
Market Cap
$3.01 B
Enterprise Value
$2.86 B
EV/Revenue (TTM)
0.95x
EV/EBITDA (TTM)
-84.39x
Next Earnings Date
2025-05-01
Profitability Growth
This section examines ALHC’s ability to generate profit and expand its business. Core profitability measures are Gross Margin (11.57%), Operating Margin (-0.46%), and Net Margin (-3.02%). Growth trends are indicated by YoY Revenue (47.50%) and Earnings (N/A) increases. Evaluating these margins and growth rates against historical performance 📜 and industry competitors 👥 provides crucial context. These are key indicators of financial performance and future potential.
Profit Margin (TTM)
-3.02%
Operating Margin (TTM)
-0.46%
Gross Margin (TTM)
11.57%
EBITDA Margin (TTM)
-1.13%
Revenue (TTM)
$3.00 B
Revenue Growth (YoY)
47.50%
Gross Profit (TTM)
$347.34 M
EBITDA (TTM)
$-33.91 M
Net Income (TTM)
$-90.63 M
Analyst Insights
Here’s the consensus from Wall Street analysts on ALHC. The average recommendation is ‘Buy’. 9 analyst(s) contributed to this consensus view. Targets average $18.22 (within a range of $9.00 – $22.00). Based on the mean target ($18.22), this implies a potential upside of ~18.5% from the current price ($15.37). This reflects overall analyst sentiment on the stock’s outlook.
Recommendation: Buy
Mean Target Price: $18.22
High Target Price: $22.00
Low Target Price: $9.00
Number of Analyst Opinions: 9
Technical Analysis Summary
Overall Technical Sentiment:▲ Bullish
The following technical analysis summary for ALHC, based on data up to 2025-05-30 00:00:00, outlines key indicators related to trend, momentum, and volatility. Detailed charts typically provide visual confirmation of these signals.
- Trend: Mixed Trend Signals., suggesting conflicting short-term and long-term momentum requiring careful monitoring.
- Momentum (RSI): ● 44.0 (Neutral), indicating balanced momentum.
Moving Average Details
SMA 20: $15.05 ▲ (Above)
SMA 50: $16.49 ▼ (Below)
SMA 100: $16.43 ▼ (Below)
SMA 200: $14.60 ▲ (Above)
Remember, technical analysis looks at past data to find potential patterns; it doesn’t predict the future with certainty. Always use it alongside fundamentals and risk control.
Short Selling Info
This data shows bets against ALHC. Key short interest indicators include Short % of Float (6.92%) and the Short Ratio (2.50x). The short interest level is moderate. This indicates moderate bearish sentiment and carries moderate potential for a short squeeze. The low Days to Cover (2.50x) indicates shorts could cover relatively quickly, potentially limiting squeeze duration.
Shares Short
$9 M
Short Ratio (Days To Cover)
2.50x
Short % of Float
6.92%
Shares Short (Prior Month)
$10 M
Short Date
2025-05-15
Stock Price Statistics
Here we detail ALHC’s price behavior: market sensitivity, historical range, recent volatility, and volume. Key price behavior metrics include Beta (1.22x), the 52-week trading range ($7.05 – $21.06), recent short-term volatility (48.7%), and average trading liquidity (3m Avg Vol: N/A). Beta (1.22x) suggests the stock is more volatile than the overall market. The recent volatility (48.7%) is high, indicating significant price swings.
52 Week High
$21.06
52 Week Low
$7.05
50 Day MA
$16.75
200 Day MA
$13.61
Beta
1.22x
Volatility (30d Ann.)
48.7% 📉
Conclusion Outlook
Short-Term Technical Snapshot
- ▲Overall Technical Sentiment: Bullish
- ●Price Trend vs MAs: mixed (below SMA50, above SMA200)
- ●Momentum (RSI): Neutral (44.0)
- 📊Support / Resistance (30d): ~$13.70 / ~$17.99
Longer-Term Fundamental & Forecast Outlook
- ▲1-Year Avg. Forecast: ~+132.0% avg. change to ≈$35.65
- ●Fundamental Health: Assessment Incomplete (ROE: -75.39%, D/E: 302.31x)
- ●Valuation Snapshot: Appears Moderate (Fwd P/E: -29.84x)
- ●Recent Growth (YoY): N/A (Rev: 47.50%, Earn: N/A)
- ▲Analyst Consensus: Buy (Target: $18.22)
Overall Assessment & Outlook
Synthesizing the data, ALHC currently shows Bullish technicals coupled with moderate fundamentals. The current valuation is assessed as Appears Moderate (Fwd P/E: -29.84x). Models project a 1-year path indicating potential upside (+132.0%), targeting ≈$35.65. Careful consideration of these points relative to their personal risk tolerance and investment timeline.
Note: This report combines model projections and public data for educational use. It is not investment advice. Market conditions change rapidly. Always conduct thorough independent research and consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Risk Factors
Potential investors in ALHC should be aware of several risk factors. The following list highlights key considerations based on data and market dynamics, but may not include all possible risks.
- ⚠️ High Volatility: Recent annualized volatility (48.7%) suggests significant price swings.
- ⚠️ Overall market fluctuations can impact the stock.
- ⚠️ Factors specific to the Healthcare Plans industry or Healthcare sector can affect performance.
- ⚠️ Changes in macroeconomic conditions (interest rates, inflation) pose risks.
- ⚠️ Unforeseen company events or news can impact the price.
Introduction
This report provides a detailed analysis of Alignment Healthcare, Inc. (ALHC), a $3.01 B company operating in the Healthcare Plans industry. The core question for investors is whether the current stock price represents a fair value and if the company is positioned for future growth.
Here’s What You Need to Know Right Now
The stock is sitting at $15.37 (as of May 2025), and it’s experiencing a short-term pullback within a larger uptrend, as it trades below its 50-day average while holding above the 200-day.
Analysts appear optimistic, with a 1-year price target of $18.22 (a potential +132.0% upside). However, there’s significant volatility here (48.7% annualized), suggesting the potential for wide price swings.
Alignment Healthcare, Inc.’s fundamental story is nuanced. On one hand, the company benefits from solid revenue growth (up 4750.00% YoY). On the other, it faces challenges with a high debt load (Debt/Equity: 302.31x).
What’s Inside This Analysis?
We’re not just throwing numbers at you—we’re breaking down ALHC’s stock from every angle so you can make an informed decision:
- ✅ Is now a good time to buy?
Technicals say “Neutral” (but RSI is neutral at 44.0).
Fundamentals say “be cautious” (driven by debt levels and growth metrics). - ✅ Can its core operations drive future growth?
Future growth will likely depend on performance in its core Healthcare Plans operations and ability to manage competitive pressures. - ✅ What are the biggest risks?
The company carries $329.50 M in debt, which could be a headwind in a high-interest-rate environment.
Competition is fierce from both established players and new entrants.
Most stock analyses either use hard-to-understand jargon or say something too simple like “just buy” and trust the outcome. This is not what’s happening. We’re here with clear information that benefits you, no matter if you invest for long-term results or try for fast profits.
All in all, is Alignment Healthcare, Inc. the right investment to make sure your money tells a story of success and satisfaction? Or are there underlying issues to be wary of? Stick around as we get to the details in the data.
Metrics Summary
The following data points provide a summary of ALHC’s current status. Currently priced at $15.37, ALHC has a model-based 1-year forecast around $35.65 (a +132.0% potential change). Technical indicators currently reflect a Bullish sentiment (Below SMA 50 / Above SMA 200). Recent volatility (48.7%) quantifies price fluctuations. We delve into more specific technical and fundamental analysis in the subsequent sections.
Detailed Forecast Table
Here’s the breakdown of the month forecast for ALHC ($15.22 to $43.83 overall range). The table shows projected price bands, potential ROI against the current price, and the resulting model signal per period.
Over the forecast horizon (2025-05 to 2026-05), ALHC’s price is projected by the model to fluctuate between approximately $15.22 and $43.83.
Forecast uncertainty appears steady, with the price range ($15.22 – $15.22 to $25.52 – $43.83) showing little change over the horizon.
Month (Period) | Min. Price | Avg. Price | Max. Price | Potential ROI vs Current ($15.37) | Model Signal |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
2025-05 | $15.22 | $15.22 | $15.22 | ● -0.9% | Hold/Neutral |
2025-06 | $16.15 | $19.06 | $21.53 | ▲ 24.0% | Consider Buy |
2025-07 | $18.74 | $22.09 | $24.10 | ▲ 43.7% | Consider Buy |
2025-08 | $20.77 | $23.22 | $26.34 | ▲ 51.1% | Consider Buy |
2025-09 | $21.52 | $24.67 | $27.48 | ▲ 60.5% | Consider Buy |
2025-10 | $22.63 | $26.12 | $30.05 | ▲ 69.9% | Consider Buy |
2025-11 | $24.72 | $30.38 | $35.79 | ▲ 97.6% | Consider Buy |
2025-12 | $25.79 | $31.80 | $36.34 | ▲ 106.9% | Consider Buy |
2026-01 | $25.07 | $30.97 | $36.07 | ▲ 101.5% | Consider Buy |
2026-02 | $23.45 | $30.19 | $35.53 | ▲ 96.4% | Consider Buy |
2026-03 | $22.11 | $30.65 | $39.25 | ▲ 99.4% | Consider Buy |
2026-04 | $23.72 | $33.34 | $40.77 | ▲ 116.9% | Consider Buy |
2026-05 | $25.52 | $35.65 | $43.83 | ▲ 132.0% | Consider Buy |
Remember that these forecasts are generated by models, carry inherent uncertainty, and can change with new data or market shifts. Future prices are not guaranteed.
Total Valuation
Total valuation metrics offer a broader perspective beyond market capitalization. Enterprise Value (EV) of N/A provides a more comprehensive measure of ALHC’s total worth than market cap alone, as it incorporates debt and cash. The EV/Revenue ratio (0.95x) compares this total value to sales, while EV/EBITDA (-84.39x) relates it to operating profitability before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization. These ratios help assess the company’s valuation relative to its sales and operating earnings. Key upcoming dates include the next earnings announcement (Est: 2025-05-01) and the ex-dividend date (N/A).
Market Cap | $3.01 B |
Enterprise Value | $2.86 B |
EV/Revenue (TTM) | 0.95x |
EV/EBITDA (TTM) | -84.39x |
Next Earnings Date | 2025-05-01 |
Profitability Growth
This section examines ALHC’s ability to generate profit and expand its business. Core profitability measures are Gross Margin (11.57%), Operating Margin (-0.46%), and Net Margin (-3.02%). Growth trends are indicated by YoY Revenue (47.50%) and Earnings (N/A) increases. Evaluating these margins and growth rates against historical performance 📜 and industry competitors 👥 provides crucial context. These are key indicators of financial performance and future potential.
Profit Margin (TTM) | -3.02% |
Operating Margin (TTM) | -0.46% |
Gross Margin (TTM) | 11.57% |
EBITDA Margin (TTM) | -1.13% |
Revenue (TTM) | $3.00 B |
Revenue Growth (YoY) | 47.50% |
Gross Profit (TTM) | $347.34 M |
EBITDA (TTM) | $-33.91 M |
Net Income (TTM) | $-90.63 M |
Analyst Insights
Here’s the consensus from Wall Street analysts on ALHC. The average recommendation is ‘Buy’. 9 analyst(s) contributed to this consensus view. Targets average $18.22 (within a range of $9.00 – $22.00). Based on the mean target ($18.22), this implies a potential upside of ~18.5% from the current price ($15.37). This reflects overall analyst sentiment on the stock’s outlook.
Technical Analysis Summary
The following technical analysis summary for ALHC, based on data up to 2025-05-30 00:00:00, outlines key indicators related to trend, momentum, and volatility. Detailed charts typically provide visual confirmation of these signals.
- Trend: Mixed Trend Signals., suggesting conflicting short-term and long-term momentum requiring careful monitoring.
- Momentum (RSI): ● 44.0 (Neutral), indicating balanced momentum.
Moving Average Details
Remember, technical analysis looks at past data to find potential patterns; it doesn’t predict the future with certainty. Always use it alongside fundamentals and risk control.
Short Selling Info
This data shows bets against ALHC. Key short interest indicators include Short % of Float (6.92%) and the Short Ratio (2.50x). The short interest level is moderate. This indicates moderate bearish sentiment and carries moderate potential for a short squeeze. The low Days to Cover (2.50x) indicates shorts could cover relatively quickly, potentially limiting squeeze duration.
Shares Short | $9 M |
Short Ratio (Days To Cover) | 2.50x |
Short % of Float | 6.92% |
Shares Short (Prior Month) | $10 M |
Short Date | 2025-05-15 |
Stock Price Statistics
Here we detail ALHC’s price behavior: market sensitivity, historical range, recent volatility, and volume. Key price behavior metrics include Beta (1.22x), the 52-week trading range ($7.05 – $21.06), recent short-term volatility (48.7%), and average trading liquidity (3m Avg Vol: N/A). Beta (1.22x) suggests the stock is more volatile than the overall market. The recent volatility (48.7%) is high, indicating significant price swings.
52 Week High | $21.06 |
52 Week Low | $7.05 |
50 Day MA | $16.75 |
200 Day MA | $13.61 |
Beta | 1.22x |
Volatility (30d Ann.) | 48.7% 📉 |
Conclusion Outlook
Short-Term Technical Snapshot
- ▲Overall Technical Sentiment: Bullish
- ●Price Trend vs MAs: mixed (below SMA50, above SMA200)
- ●Momentum (RSI): Neutral (44.0)
- 📊Support / Resistance (30d): ~$13.70 / ~$17.99
Longer-Term Fundamental & Forecast Outlook
- ▲1-Year Avg. Forecast: ~+132.0% avg. change to ≈$35.65
- ●Fundamental Health: Assessment Incomplete (ROE: -75.39%, D/E: 302.31x)
- ●Valuation Snapshot: Appears Moderate (Fwd P/E: -29.84x)
- ●Recent Growth (YoY): N/A (Rev: 47.50%, Earn: N/A)
- ▲Analyst Consensus: Buy (Target: $18.22)
Overall Assessment & Outlook
Synthesizing the data, ALHC currently shows Bullish technicals coupled with moderate fundamentals. The current valuation is assessed as Appears Moderate (Fwd P/E: -29.84x). Models project a 1-year path indicating potential upside (+132.0%), targeting ≈$35.65. Careful consideration of these points relative to their personal risk tolerance and investment timeline.
Note: This report combines model projections and public data for educational use. It is not investment advice. Market conditions change rapidly. Always conduct thorough independent research and consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Risk Factors
Potential investors in ALHC should be aware of several risk factors. The following list highlights key considerations based on data and market dynamics, but may not include all possible risks.
- ⚠️ High Volatility: Recent annualized volatility (48.7%) suggests significant price swings.
- ⚠️ Overall market fluctuations can impact the stock.
- ⚠️ Factors specific to the Healthcare Plans industry or Healthcare sector can affect performance.
- ⚠️ Changes in macroeconomic conditions (interest rates, inflation) pose risks.
- ⚠️ Unforeseen company events or news can impact the price.