If you are looking for AAL stock price prediction with detailed technical, fundamental, stock forecast analysis. you are at right place. Here, we have analyzed American Airlines Group Inc. (AAL), a major player in the Airlines industry within the Industrials sector. As of May 06, 2025, AAL trades at $10.43, reflecting its current mixed signals relative to its moving averages (above SMA50, below SMA200). The company holds a market capitalization of approximately $7.33 B.
This detailed analytical report aims to predict stock prices along with technical examinations while providing future forecasting for 2025-2026. This report combines both historical price-related technical indicators and fundamental data examination for creating an extensive market performance forecast.
Brief Overview
American Airlines Group Inc., through its subsidiaries, operates as a network air carrier in the United States, Latin America, Atlantic, and Pacific. The company provides scheduled air transportation services for passengers and cargo through its hubs in Charlotte, Chicago, Dallas/Fort Worth, Los Ang…
Key Metrics and Forecast Summary
$10.43
$10.45
$11.68 (+12.0%) ▲
● Neutral
87.9%
$10.19 ▲
$14.18 ▼
14/29 (48%)
The 1-Year forecast of $11.68 (+12.0%) suggests modest potential upside. The 87.9% annualized volatility indicates high risk (price fluctuation). Price gives mixed signals (above SMA50 at $10.19, below SMA200 at $14.18).
Price Forecast Chart
Recent actual average prices vs. forecasted price range (Low, Average, High).
Detailed Forecast Table
The table below outlines the forecasted price range (Minimum, Average, Maximum) for AAL stock on a month basis.
‘Potential ROI’ (Return on Investment) is calculated by comparing the forecasted ‘Average’ price against the current stock price ($10.43).
‘Action Signal’ provides a simplified interpretation based on this ROI: ‘Buy’ if ROI > +2%, ‘Short’ if ROI < -2%, and ‘Hold’ otherwise. The signals originate from the forecast model prediction data exclusively.
Over the forecast period, the price is projected to fluctuate between approximately $4.80 and $20.71.
The widening forecast range from $10.45 – $10.45 initially to $6.25 – $19.75 towards the end of the forecast period reflects increasing uncertainty or expected volatility over time.
| Month | Min. Price | Avg. Price | Max. Price | Potential ROI | Action Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-05 | $10.45 | $10.45 | $10.45 | ● 0.2% | Hold |
| 2025-06 | $7.68 | $11.82 | $15.99 | ▲ 13.3% | Buy |
| 2025-07 | $7.60 | $11.59 | $15.04 | ▲ 11.2% | Buy |
| 2025-08 | $7.61 | $11.59 | $15.90 | ▲ 11.2% | Buy |
| 2025-09 | $7.28 | $11.50 | $17.57 | ▲ 10.2% | Buy |
| 2025-10 | $6.59 | $11.55 | $17.34 | ▲ 10.8% | Buy |
| 2025-11 | $7.23 | $11.96 | $17.54 | ▲ 14.7% | Buy |
| 2025-12 | $7.31 | $12.11 | $17.94 | ▲ 16.1% | Buy |
| 2026-01 | $7.22 | $12.25 | $19.05 | ▲ 17.4% | Buy |
| 2026-02 | $6.37 | $12.32 | $18.89 | ▲ 18.1% | Buy |
| 2026-03 | $5.57 | $12.01 | $20.71 | ▲ 15.2% | Buy |
| 2026-04 | $4.80 | $11.68 | $20.35 | ▲ 12.0% | Buy |
| 2026-05 | $6.25 | $11.47 | $19.75 | ▲ 9.9% | Buy |
Company Profile
Business Summary
American Airlines Group Inc., through its subsidiaries, operates as a network air carrier in the United States, Latin America, Atlantic, and Pacific. The company provides scheduled air transportation services for passengers and cargo through its hubs in Charlotte, Chicago, Dallas/Fort Worth, Los Angeles, Miami, New York, Philadelphia, Phoenix, and Washington, D.C., as well as through partner gateways in London, Doha, Madrid, Seattle/Tacoma, Sydney, and Tokyo. It also operates a mainline fleet of 977 aircraft. The company was formerly known as AMR Corporation and changed its name to American Airlines Group Inc. in December 2013. American Airlines Group Inc. was founded in 1926 and is headquartered in Fort Worth, Texas.
Total Valuation
Total valuation metrics provide a broader view of the company’s worth, including debt and cash.
With an Enterprise Value of $35.91 B against its Trailing Twelve Months (TTM) revenue, AAL’s EV/Revenue ratio stands at 0.66x, which is currently below the estimated industry average (~2.5x), potentially suggesting undervaluation relative to revenue.
Important upcoming dates: Next Earnings around 2025-04-24, Last Ex-Dividend Date was 2020-02-04.
| Market Cap | $7.33 B |
| Enterprise Value (EV TTM) | $35.91 B |
| EV/Revenue (TTM) | 0.66x |
| EV/EBITDA (TTM) | 6.75x |
| Next Earnings Date | 2025-04-24 |
| Ex-Dividend Date | 2020-02-04 |
Valuation Metrics
Stock valuation metrics enable investors to determine the price value relationship between stock market worth and earnings along with sales, book value and anticipated growth potential.
Forward P/E of 5.50x Price/Book of -1.63x Mentoring these financial metrics to industry standards as well historical company values generates deeper understanding.
Note: P/FCF (Price to Free Cash Flow) of 7.79x is another key valuation indicator. EV/EBITDA is often used for comparing companies with different capital structures.
| Trailing P/E | 11.11x |
| Forward P/E | 5.50x |
| Price/Sales (TTM) | 0.14x |
| Price/Book (MRQ) | -1.63x |
| EV/Revenue (TTM) | 0.66x |
| EV/EBITDA (TTM) | 6.75x |
| Price/FCF (TTM) | 7.79x |
Financial Health
Companies need financial health indicators to determine their capability of handling short-term financial commitments (liquidity) and their ability to repay long-term debt (solvency) as well as their equity and asset return ratios.
- Current Ratio (0.52x) below 1.0 suggests potential short-term liquidity challenges. The Quick Ratio (0.38x), excluding inventory, reinforces potential liquidity constraints.
- Operating Cash Flow (TTM) stands at $4.26 B, demonstrating cash generated from core operations.
These metrics act as point-in-time measurements yet understanding long-term trends delivers better understanding. ROA (Return on Assets) does not appear frequently in these financial reports.
| Return on Assets (ROA TTM) | 3.03% |
| Total Cash (MRQ) | $8.02 B |
| Total Debt (MRQ) | $36.60 B |
| Current Ratio (MRQ) | 0.52x |
| Quick Ratio (MRQ) | 0.38x |
| Operating Cash Flow (TTM) | $4.26 B |
| Levered Free Cash Flow (TTM) | $940.37 M |
Financial Efficiency
Financial efficiency ratios evaluate organizational asset management and working capital control (such as inventory and receivables) for generating revenue and profits.
- Specific financial efficiency metrics were not readily available.
ROIC stands as an important measurement of total capital efficiency but analysts need full financial statements to generate this metric. Monitoring should focus on equal groups in the same market sector.
| No specific data available for this section. |
Profitability and Growth
Profitability margins show how much profit is generated per dollar of sales at different stages (Gross, Operating, Net). Growth rates track the expansion of revenue and earnings over time.
- Recent revenue growth was -0.20% (Earnings growth N/A).
- Gross Margin (24.69%) appears moderate, while Operating Margin (-1.51%) is low. Analyzing margin trends over time is important.
Business owners should measure margins by comparing them against industry competitors and past performance records. Stock value development depends heavily on sustainable growth.
| Profit Margin (TTM) | 1.26% |
| Operating Margin (TTM) | -1.51% |
| Gross Margin (TTM) | 24.69% |
| EBITDA Margin (TTM) | 9.82% |
| Revenue (TTM) | $54.19 B |
| Revenue Growth (YoY) | -0.20% |
| Gross Profit (TTM) | $13.38 B |
| EBITDA (TTM) | $5.32 B |
| Net Income (TTM) | $685.00 M |
Dividends and Shareholder Returns
Stock dividends together with share repurchases constitute major methods that corporations use to redistribute wealth to their shareholders. Investors who focus on income require a thorough analysis of both yield ratios and dividend sustainability.
- Payout Ratio of 0.00% indicates a negative or zero, indicating dividends may not be covered by earnings.
- This dividend profile may appeal most to speculative income (risk) investors.
- Share buybacks (Yield: N/A) also contribute to total shareholder return.
Shareholders obtain a yield consisting of dividends and buybacks according to the equation Total Shareholder Yield = Dividend Yield + Buyback Yield. Raising dividends to full potential may temporarily restrict future dividend expansion possibilities. Check Ex-Dividend Date for eligibility.
| Trailing Dividend Rate | $0.00 |
| Trailing Dividend Yield | 0.00% |
| 5 Year Avg Dividend Yield | 1.3% |
| Payout Ratio | 0.00% |
| Ex-Dividend Date | 2020-02-04 |
Technical Analysis
Summary based on data up to 2025-05-06. Detailed charts follow.
- Trend: Mixed Trend Signals. Current Price: $10.43.
- Momentum (RSI): 85.4 (Overbought), suggesting potential pullback risk.
- Momentum (MACD): Line (0.11) above Signal (-0.04) (Bullish Signal). Histogram is Positive (Strengthening Bullish).
- Volatility (BBands): Price within Bands, indicating normal volatility range.
- Support/Resistance (30d): ~$8.92 / ~$11.23.
Moving Average Values
Technical indicators analyze past price trends, not future guarantees.
Bollinger Bands Analysis
RSI Analysis
MACD Analysis
Historical Price & Volume
Historical closing price and volume. Range typically shows last 3 years.
Stock Price Statistics
The statistics helps you to understand the stock’s volatility along with market-related Beta value and performance range and trading liquidity.
- Beta is reported as 1.32x.
- Recent Volatility (30d Annualized) is 87.9%.
- The 52-Week Change of -25.59% reflects long-term price momentum.
Note: Beta > 1 indicates higher volatility than the market; Beta < 1 indicates lower. Average Volume shows typical daily trading activity.
| Beta | 1.32x |
| 52 Week Change | -25.59% |
| S&P500 52-Week Change | 8.40% |
| 52 Week High | $19.10 |
| 52 Week Low | $8.50 |
| 50-Day Moving Average | $10.81 |
| 200-Day Moving Average | $13.02 |
| Average Volume (10 day) | 61,443,340 |
| Average Volume (3 month) | 62,212,845 |
| Volatility (30d Ann.) | 87.9% |
Short Selling Information
Short selling data indicates the level of bearish bets against the stock.
- Short interest at 10.49% of float suggests significant bearish sentiment.
- This level indicates moderate short squeeze risk.
- The Short Ratio (Days To Cover) is 1.0x, meaning it would take about that many days of average volume to cover all short positions.
Note: High short interest can increase volatility. The Short Ratio helps gauge how quickly short positions could theoretically be covered. Data as of 2025-04-15.
| Shares Short | $69 M |
| Short Ratio (Days To Cover) | 1.0x |
| Short % of Float | 10.49% |
| Shares Short (Prior Month) | $59 M |
| Short Date | 2025-04-15 |
Risk Factors
Investing in AAL involves various risks. This section outlines potential factors identified through data analysis and general market considerations. It is not exhaustive.
- ⚠️ Price (10.43) is below the 200-Day SMA (14.18), indicating potential long-term weakness.
- ⚠️ RSI (85.4) is high (>70), suggesting potential overbought conditions.
- ⚠️ Current Ratio (0.52x) is below 1.0, suggesting potential short-term liquidity challenges.
- ⚠️ Negative year-over-year revenue growth (-0.20%) poses a risk to future performance.
- ⚠️ General market fluctuations and economic conditions can impact stocks in the Industrials sector.
Analyst Insights and Consensus
Wall Street analysts provide ratings and price targets based on their assessment of the company’s prospects.
- The consensus recommendation from 23 analysts is ▲ Buy.
- Analysts’ mean target price of $13.22 implies potential 26.7% change from the current price ($10.43), suggesting analyst optimism.
Note: Analyst opinions are subjective and can change. Look at the range of estimates (High/Low Target) and any recent revisions for more context.
Conclusion and Outlook
Short-Term Outlook
- ●Overall Technical Sentiment: Neutral.
- ●Price shows mixed signals relative to SMA50/SMA200.
- ⚠️Overbought (RSI: 85.4), potential for pullback.
- ▲MACD indicator shows Bullish momentum signal.
- ●Price is currently within normal volatility range.
- ℹ️Key levels to watch: Support ~$8.92, Resistance ~$11.23.
Long-Term Outlook (1 Year)
- ▲Model forecasts ~+12.0% average change over 1 year to ≈$11.68.
- ➕Valuation potentially attractive (Fwd P/E: 5.50x). (Needs peer comparison).
- ●Fundamental health assessment incomplete.
- ●Recent growth trajectory is mixed or unclear.
- ▲Analyst consensus: Buy.
Overall Assessment:
Overall assessment requires careful consideration of all factors. Technicals currently show Neutral signals. Fundamentals appear Moderate. The forecast suggests Potential Upside. Consider risks before investing.
This is an analysis report and not investment advice. Review all data and consult a professional.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the AAL stock forecast for the next year?
The current 1-year average price forecast for AAL is approximately $11.68. This represents a potential change of +12.0% from the current price of $10.43. Keep in mind this is an estimate, and the actual price could fall within the forecast range (see table) or outside it due to market factors.
Will AAL stock go up or down?
The 1-year forecast (+12.0% potential change) suggests the stock might go up on average. However, short-term movements can differ significantly based on technical factors (Neutral) and market news. Refer to the detailed forecast table for projected monthly ranges.
Is AAL a good stock to buy now?
Current technical sentiment is Neutral (neutral leaning). The stock is currently ⚠️ overbought (RSI: 85.4). The forecast shows a +12.0% potential 1-year change. However, 5 potential risk factor(s) were identified (see Risk section). This is not investment advice. Evaluate risks, fundamentals (like valuation, debt), and your own investment strategy. Consider consulting a financial advisor.
How volatile is AAL stock?
The recent annualized volatility for AAL is calculated at ⚠️ 87.9%, indicating high price fluctuations compared to typical market averages. Check the ‘Stock Price Statistics’ section for Beta comparison if available.
Is AAL considered expensive based on P/E ratio?
The Trailing P/E ratio is ➕ 11.11x. This is considered relatively low relative to typical benchmarks. Refer to the ‘Valuation Metrics’ section for Forward P/E and other ratios, ideally compared to industry peers for full context.