AJG Stock Analysis for Money Stockers
Introduction
Here, we examine Arthur J. Gallagher & Co. (AJG), operating in the Financial Services sector’s Insurance Brokers space. Trading activity on 2025-05-30 00:00:00 placed the stock price at $347.44, reflecting apparent technical strength, trading above its key moving averages. A position over both the 50-day and 200-day SMAs often confirms an ongoing uptrend. With a market capitalization of approximately $87.15 B, AJG represents a significant player in its field.
This report offers a multi-faceted analysis of Arthur J. Gallagher & Co. (AJG), integrating technical signals, fundamental data, and forward-looking forecasts. The aim is to provide investors with a balanced perspective on the stock’s current market standing, potential risks (see Risk Factors), and future performance outlook.
Business Overview
Core activities involve: Arthur J. Gallagher & Co., together with its subsidiaries, provides insurance and reinsurance brokerage, consulting, and third-party property/casualty claims settlement and administration services to entities and individuals worldwide. It operates in Brokerage and Risk Management segments. The Brokerage segment offers retail and wholesale insurance and reinsurance brokerage services; assists retai…
Metrics Summary
The following data points provide a summary of AJG’s current status. The stock trades at $347.44, with models forecasting a 1-year average target near $393.53 (+13.3%). Sentiment derived from technicals is Bullish (Above SMA 50 / Above SMA 200). The stock’s recent volatility stands at 18.7%. Further details on the technical and fundamental aspects are explored below.
Detailed Forecast Table
Here’s the breakdown of the month forecast for AJG ($321.91 to $408.03 overall range). The table shows projected price bands, potential ROI against the current price, and the resulting model signal per period.
Over the forecast horizon (2025-05 to 2026-05), AJG’s price is projected by the model to fluctuate between approximately $321.91 and $408.03.
Forecast uncertainty appears steady, with the price range ($337.21 – $337.21 to $377.86 – $408.03) showing little change over the horizon.
Month (Period) | Min. Price | Avg. Price | Max. Price | Potential ROI vs Current ($347.44) | Model Signal |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
2025-05 | $337.21 | $337.21 | $337.21 | ▼ -2.9% | Consider Short |
2025-06 | $321.91 | $329.51 | $336.68 | ▼ -5.2% | Consider Short |
2025-07 | $326.60 | $336.85 | $347.39 | ▼ -3.0% | Consider Short |
2025-08 | $335.94 | $350.46 | $364.53 | ● 0.9% | Hold/Neutral |
2025-09 | $348.04 | $359.76 | $372.58 | ▲ 3.5% | Consider Buy |
2025-10 | $354.48 | $361.86 | $371.92 | ▲ 4.1% | Consider Buy |
2025-11 | $356.45 | $367.74 | $381.48 | ▲ 5.8% | Consider Buy |
2025-12 | $367.80 | $376.09 | $389.28 | ▲ 8.2% | Consider Buy |
2026-01 | $354.44 | $367.00 | $381.21 | ▲ 5.6% | Consider Buy |
2026-02 | $358.18 | $370.99 | $386.02 | ▲ 6.8% | Consider Buy |
2026-03 | $368.97 | $382.97 | $397.74 | ▲ 10.2% | Consider Buy |
2026-04 | $376.42 | $391.76 | $406.69 | ▲ 12.8% | Consider Buy |
2026-05 | $377.86 | $393.53 | $408.03 | ▲ 13.3% | Consider Buy |
Forecasts are model-based estimates, inherently uncertain, and subject to change based on evolving data and market conditions. They do not guarantee future prices.
Total Valuation
Moving beyond simple market cap, total valuation metrics provide deeper insight. Looking beyond market cap, the Enterprise Value (EV), currently N/A, offers a broader view of AJG’s value by including debt and cash. The EV/Revenue ratio (7.58x) compares this total value to sales, while EV/EBITDA (22.89x) relates it to operating profitability before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization. These figures help evaluate AJG’s price relative to its business scale and operational results. Note the upcoming earnings (Est: 2025-05-01) and ex-dividend (2025-06-06) dates.
Market Cap | $87.15 B |
Enterprise Value | $83.88 B |
EV/Revenue (TTM) | 7.58x |
EV/EBITDA (TTM) | 22.89x |
Next Earnings Date | 2025-05-01 |
Ex-Dividend Date | 2025-06-06 |
Profitability Growth
Here we look at AJG’s profit generation and growth trajectory. Profitability is reflected in margins: Gross (43.66%), Operating (27.83%), and Net (13.86%). The company’s recent growth trajectory shows Revenue up 10.10% and Earnings up -0.70% YoY. Context for these margin and growth numbers comes from comparing them to historical data 📜 and industry rivals 👥. These metrics reflect financial success and expansion capacity.
Profit Margin (TTM) | 13.86% |
Operating Margin (TTM) | 27.83% |
Gross Margin (TTM) | 43.66% |
EBITDA Margin (TTM) | 33.10% |
Revenue (TTM) | $11.24 B |
Revenue Growth (YoY) | 10.10% |
Gross Profit (TTM) | $4.91 B |
EBITDA (TTM) | $3.72 B |
Net Income (TTM) | $1.56 B |
Earnings Growth (YoY) | -0.70% |
Analyst Insights
This section summarizes the collective view of professional analysts covering AJG. The consensus recommendation is ‘Buy’. This consensus is based on opinions from 14 analyst(s). The mean price target is $338.73, with individual targets ranging from $267.00 – $388.00. The average target ($338.73) suggests roughly -2.5% potential downside compared to the current price ($347.44). This provides a gauge of Wall Street sentiment regarding the stock’s potential.
Technical Analysis Summary
This technical overview for AJG (as of 2025-05-30 00:00:00) covers essential trend, momentum, and volatility indicators. Charts offer more detail, but this summarizes the key signals.
- Trend: Positive Trend Alignment, as price ($347.44) holds above both the key 50-day and 200-day SMAs, indicating positive momentum across timeframes.
- Momentum (RSI): ● 59.4 (Balanced), indicating balanced momentum.
Moving Average Details
Remember, technical analysis looks at past data to find potential patterns; it doesn’t predict the future with certainty. Always use it alongside fundamentals and risk control.
Short Selling Info
Short selling data provides a measure of negative sentiment or bets against AJG. Short selling activity is measured by Short % of Float (1.75%) and Days to Cover (2.90x). The current level is considered low. This implies low bearish sentiment and suggests low short squeeze potential. The low Days to Cover (2.90x) indicates shorts could cover relatively quickly, potentially limiting squeeze duration.
Shares Short | $4 M |
Short Ratio (Days To Cover) | 2.90x |
Short % of Float | 1.75% |
Shares Short (Prior Month) | $3 M |
Short Date | 2025-05-15 |
Stock Price Statistics
This section summarizes AJG’s stock price characteristics, including its sensitivity to market movements, historical trading range, recent price fluctuation intensity, and typical trading volume. Key price behavior metrics include Beta (0.75x), the 52-week trading range ($250.72 – $351.23), recent short-term volatility (18.7%), and average trading liquidity (3m Avg Vol: N/A). Beta (0.75x) indicates lower volatility relative to the market. Volatility (18.7%) is relatively low, implying more stable price action recently.
52 Week High | $351.23 |
52 Week Low | $250.72 |
50 Day MA | $334.15 |
200 Day MA | $307.52 |
Beta | 0.75x |
Volatility (30d Ann.) | 18.7% 📉 |
Conclusion Outlook
Short-Term Technical Snapshot
- ▲Overall Technical Sentiment: Bullish
- ▲Price Trend vs MAs: bullish (above SMA50/200)
- ●Momentum (RSI): Neutral (59.4)
- 📊Support / Resistance (30d): ~$313.41 / ~$348.30
Longer-Term Fundamental & Forecast Outlook
- ▲1-Year Avg. Forecast: ~+13.3% avg. change to ≈$393.53
- ●Fundamental Health: Assessment Incomplete (ROE: 9.30%, D/E: 60.05x)
- ⚠️Valuation Snapshot: Appears Elevated (Fwd P/E: 30.17x)
- ➖Recent Growth (YoY): Negative (Rev: 10.10%, Earn: -0.70%)
- ▲Analyst Consensus: Buy (Target: $338.73)
Overall Assessment & Outlook
Overall, AJG combines a technical picture leaning Bullish with a fundamental health assessment of moderate. Valuation appears Appears Elevated (Fwd P/E: 30.17x). Models project a 1-year path indicating potential upside (+13.3%), targeting ≈$393.53. Careful consideration of these points relative to the potential risks outlined earlier and their strategic goals.
Note: This report combines model projections and public data for educational use. It is not investment advice. Market conditions change rapidly. Always conduct thorough independent research and consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Risk Factors
Potential investors in AJG should be aware of several risk factors. The following list highlights key considerations based on data and market dynamics, but may not include all possible risks.
- ⚠️ Overall market fluctuations can impact the stock.
- ⚠️ Factors specific to the Insurance Brokers industry or Financial Services sector can affect performance.
- ⚠️ Changes in macroeconomic conditions (interest rates, inflation) pose risks.
- ⚠️ Unforeseen company events or news can impact the price.