Is AMED a Smart Investment Now?

Here’s the breakdown of the month forecast for AMED ($71.11 to $120.03 overall range). The table shows projected price bands, potential ROI against the current price, and the resulting model signal per period.

Over the forecast horizon (2025-06 to 2026-06), AMED’s price is projected by the model to fluctuate between approximately $71.11 and $120.03.

The projected price range remains relatively consistent (from $94.42 – $94.42 to $71.11 – $117.42), implying stable forecast uncertainty.

Although the market considers Amedisys, Inc. to be a key player in the Medical Care Facilities industry with a $3.19 B market cap, its enterprise value is much higher at $3.36 B, with $170.00M of that value added by debt. Investors are confident about Amedisys, Inc.’s future earnings, but keep in mind the risk of that large amount of debt.

The valuation ratios tell an interesting story: at 1.44x revenue and 13.94x EBITDA, Amedisys, Inc. trades at a valuation that reflects its market position. This reflects the company’s strong market position and brand assets. But it also means the stock may have little room for error. The upcoming 2025-04-23 earnings report will be crucial in showing whether Amedisys, Inc.’s businesses can grow into this valuation. Essentially, you’re paying for quality – but quality doesn’t come cheap.

An analysis of the key metrics in AMED’s margin performance shows the company has solid control over its costs and prices. The company is successful in controlling its production costs, as shown by the gross margin of 43.37%, and it also profits well from its core operations, reflected in the 10.11% operating margin. A 10.29% EBITDA margin indicates AMED is capable of generating strong cash flow from its operations before accounting for financing and tax strategies. All things considered, AMED can hold onto around $3.790 in net profit for every $1 of its revenue over the last twelve months. While the business’s revenue is increasing at an aggressive rate (4.10%), investors should monitor if this pace can be sustained without eroding profit margins.

AMED’s $244.10 M in EBITDA and $1.03 B in gross profit indicate its raw earning power, while the $89.84 M in net income reveals how effectively it converts that power into bottom-line results. The company appears to be balancing its pursuit of growth with the need to maintain profitability. Despite healthy gross margins, there is a significant difference between the company’s gross and net margins (43.37% vs. 3.79%). This is likely due to high operating expenses, interest costs, or taxes, which are key areas for investors to watch. In the future, maintaining steady or improving margins will be critical. AMED needs to defend its pricing power and control operating costs, as this will help sustain profitability, especially if revenue growth moderates.

Here’s the consensus from Wall Street analysts on AMED. The average recommendation is ‘Hold’. This consensus is based on opinions from 8 analysts(s). Targets average $97.38 (within a range of $73.00 – $101.00). Based on the mean target ($97.38), this implies a potential upside of ~0.6% from the current price ($96.84). This reflects overall analyst sentiment on the stock’s outlook.

There is currently $2 M worth of short interest in AMED, and the short ratio (or days to cover) is 4.9x. This means that at the stock’s recent average trading volume, it would take several days for all short positions to be covered. This moderate level indicates a balance between bearish bets and the market’s ability to absorb them without extreme volatility.

With 5.82% of the public float sold short, a moderate percentage of the stock is being shorted, showing some bearish sentiment but not an extreme level. This level has remained relatively stable compared to last month’s value of $2 M, suggesting a shift in bearish sentiment. With notable short interest, investors should be aware of potential volatility spikes, which could be triggered by news events that force short sellers to cover their positions.

When looking at the price range over the past year, the stock has seen a high of $98.95 and a low of $82.15. This relatively narrow gap suggests the stock has traded within a more stable range over the past year. Currently, the 50-day moving average at $94.53 is slightly above the 200-day moving average of $91.80. This ‘golden cross’ setup is often viewed as a bullish signal, indicating positive long-term momentum.

A beta of 0.94x suggests the stock’s movement is generally in line with the broader market. Combined with a low 30-day annualized volatility of 10.9%, it’s clear this stock sees frequent price swings. For investors, this means potential for gains, but also higher downside risk. These indicators matter when deciding position sizing or entry timing, especially if you’re managing a portfolio that balances stability with growth exposure.

Overall Assessment & Outlook

Overall, AMED combines a technical picture of learning Bullish with a fundamental health assessment of moderate. From a valuation standpoint, it looks Appears Moderate (Fwd P/E: 19.01x). The 1-year forecast model suggests relatively flat towards ≈$92.41. Careful consideration of these points relative to their personal risk tolerance and investment timeline.

Investing in AMED involves various risks. This section outlines potential factors identified through data analysis and general market considerations. It is not exhaustive.